National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion
255
FXUS63 KAPX 132341
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
641 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued lake effect rain/snow showers this afternoon
through tonight. Highest potential for additional accumulation
across parts of Grand Traverse County.
- Scattered rain/snow showers linger into Saturday. Drying out
late in the weekend with a warming trend into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified upper-level pattern continues
this afternoon across NOAM. Longwave troughing remains evident over
the eastern half of the continent, including the Great Lakes, with
upstream ridging over the southern Plains/desert southwest northward
through the Rockies/western Plains. Sfc low pressure sits off the
Northeast coast with broad cyclonic flow locally aiding to continue
to draw in cold air from the north. During the day Saturday, heights
gradually begin to rise as upstream ridging makes slow headway
towards the Great Lakes. Attendant sprawling sfc high pressure will
follow suit with both of these features aiding to bring a return of
quieter (and eventually warmer) weather Sunday through at least the
middle of next week.
Forecast Details: Primary focus continues to revolve around ongoing
lake effect snow this afternoon through tonight, with potential for
localized snow accumulation and associated impacts to continue.
Winds still out of the north-northeast early this afternoon, but
subtly turn more out of the due north later this afternoon and
eventually more north-northwest later tonight into Saturday. Given
the above, ongoing rain/snow showers most numerous over north-
northeast flow lake belts of far northwest lower MI (GT Bay + points
west/southwest) and over far northeast lower near the Lake Huron
coast. This should eventually transition to more traditional north
flow areas as the day wears on, but really isn`t all that big of a
change from present. Embedded shortwave this evening may flare
up additional, more numerous, showers inland as well for a time
before that limited synoptic support exits south overnight.
Primary precip type likely to remain snow inland, with more rain
mixing in at the immediate lakeshore.
In terms of accumulation this afternoon through tonight, primary
area of focus continues to be around the Grand Traverse Bay region,
initially Leelanau County, eventually transitioning to downwind of
the bay across parts of central Grand Traverse and perhaps into
northern Wexford counties. Latest snow accum. probabilities across
central Grand Traverse County for late this afternoon through
Saturday morning include 50-70% chances of 2"+, and 15-25% chance of
4"+. Spotty sub-5% for 6"+. Outside of this area, probabilities for
meaningful snow are much lower, with generally an inch or less of
new snow expected across the remainder of northwest lower, and some
spotty minor accumulation possible across the remainder of north-
central/northeast lower into parts of the eastern U.P. In terms of
headlines, while deterministic accumulation won`t necessarily
achieve winter weather advisory criteria, will opt to extend
Leelanau County for a few more hours and for Grand Traverse County
through 12z Saturday, with the scales being tipped in that direction
given this is still the first snow event of the season.
During the day Saturday, lingering lake induced precip likely to be
mixed with or turn to more rain, and really may wind up more drizzly
as the morning wears on and moisture depth really struggles. Warm
advection gradually ramps up through the day, albeit slowly, with a
limited lake response remaining possible perhaps all the way
through Saturday night.
High pressure settles overhead Sunday with quiet weather anticipated
Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Big story for next
week will be a return to well above normal temperatures as latest
trends supporting high temps in the 40s on Sunday before rising
to the low-mid 50s Monday through at least Thursday. Mid-
November normal highs range from 40-45 F across the forecast
area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026
Lake effect clouds and some showers will continue tonight and
early Saturday, before showers start to wane (though clouds
continue). TVC most likely to see brief bursts of heavier
precip tonight, potentially IFR for a short time in SHRASN.
Otherwise MVFR cigs become widespread again tonight, continuing
Saturday. Nw to n breezes.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MIZ026.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ346.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for LHZ347>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ341.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-342-
344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...JZ
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Lake Huron Weather
