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National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KAPX 170345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very windy overnight and Wednesday

- Showers and a few thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday

- Cooler Temperatures for most of the long term

- Possible gusty west winds return Friday afternoon

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 pm EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

No significant changes to the current forecast. Upper low over
near IA/MN border with isentropic upglide increasing with the
approach of a warm front. Ambient airmass is quite dry and this
initial push of radar returns is mostly aloft with just some
very light rain/sprinkles near the Lake Michigan coast from mid
clouds. As we continue to moisten up overnight combined with
increasing diffluence/upward motion, we should see increasing
amounts of showers. Some weaker instability aloft, so a few
rumbles of thunder will be possible as well. Rainfall amounts
likely not that impressive overnight, with most areas less than
0.25 inches. The gradient will continue to tighten with
increasing east winds across the area. Still some question as to
how widespread the stronger winds will be given a low level
inversion and continued warm air advection. Regardless, it will
be quite windy overnight into Wednesday with gusts to 40+ mph in
some areas and will leave wind headline untouched.


Lows tonight in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Main feature of interest this cycle is a large upper low slowly
moving through the midwest toward the Great Lakes. At the
surface, low pressure just north of Omaha will move to near
Minneapolis by Wednesday morning, then to near Green Bay by
Wednesday evening. A warm front from the low across the southern
Great Lakes will slowly lift northward to where it will be
draped across northern Michigan by Wednesday night.

Forecast Details:

Very dry airmass currently across northern Michigan along with
moderately gusty winds has prompted a Red Flag Warning across
the area, and those conditions will continue through mid
evening.

As low pressure at the surface and aloft continues to
deepen and approach the area, east winds will increase markedly
overnight. Potential for gusts of up to 50 mph are possible
generally along and west of I-75 where downsloping will assist
in producing localized gusts up to 50 mph. Further east gust
potential is still there but not as high and any impacts are
expected to be less widespread. Marine winds will increase in a
similar manner, and gale warnings are in place across the
region.

Rain chances also increase as the lows approach overnight.
Instability is pretty marginal, but there is a chance some of
the showers have some embedded thunder at times. Models imply
that there may be some coverage reduction Wednesday morning, and
if that happens, instability may be able to increase enough for
more thunder potential on the sunrise side Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Wednesday night the system will
continue eastward and exit the region. West to north west winds
will gradually diminish overnight into Thursday morning.
Thursday, a weaker surface low and trailing front will pass over
MI brining rain chances back for Thursday afternoon and Friday
night. Friday, a deep upper level closed low over eastern
Ontario will slide to the southeast. This will move a stronger
mid level jet overhead. Gusty winds will be possible Friday
and/or Saturday. Colder air will also move in, making it
possible that Saturday`s high temperature could remain in the
40s. Cooler than normal temperatures will linger through early
next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: The main possible impacts in
the long term forcast are the chances for gusty west winds Friday
afternoon. At this time, models have a fairly good signal that the
stronger jet aloft will cross over northern MI Friday. However its
still early, meaning the intensity of the jet and position could
change as we get closer. Probabilities at this time keep the most
likely max wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph. Temperatures will be
cooler, with drier air. Temperatures will likely be cooler for much
of the long term due to that deep low over Canada slowly making its
way east and influencing the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Showers will overspread the terminals tonight as an area of low
pressure and associated warm front approach the Great Lakes.
Cigs lower to MVFR in some areas by Wednesday morning.
East/southeast winds will increase at the gradient tightens, with
LLWS at KMBL and KTVC. There may be a lull in the shower activity
Wednesday morning before additional showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms re-develop as the day progresses. Widespread MVFR cigs
are likely on Wednesday with potentially IFR cigs at some locations
Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Winds will remain gusty but should
gradually diminish by later Wednesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for MIZ016-017-020>022-
     025>028-031>033-097>099.
     Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ086>088-095-096.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>347.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348-349.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341-342.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-344>346.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JHV
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JK

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion