National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion
313
FXUS63 KAPX 032024
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
324 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
KEY MESSAGES
- Accumulating lake effect snow showers refocus into the Straits
area tonight as low level flow shifts to the SW ahead of an
approaching clipper system.
- Clipper system brings widespread snow to the region Wednesday
into Thursday. Travel will be very difficult in some areas
downwind of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. In addition to
the snow, gusty winds will create areas of blowing and
drifting snow with reduced visibilities. Whiteout conditions
are possible in some areas Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
Ongoing lake effect showers will continue to pivot northward as
flow shifts SW ahead of a potent clipper expected to drop from
Canada Wednesday. Ahead of the clipper, pressure gradients
tighten early tonight and accelerate SW winds across the region
creating breezy conditions with gusts possible up to 30-35 mph.
Aforementioned SW winds will persist through the night leading
to another lake effect scenario, but this time mainly for areas
across the tip of the Mitt, EUP, and northwest lower counties
along the Lake MI shoreline (particularly Leelanau, Emmet, and
Charlevoix). Heaviest snowfall totals are expected to be across
the tip of the Mitt and far eastern EUP with total snow
accumulations from 8 to 15 inches. With the environment primed,
surface temperatures below freezing, persistent winds, moisture
flowing into the region, and warm lake temperatures...
confidence has increased that this will be another significant
lake effect snow event with blowing snow and drops in visibility
likely. For more details, please see active Winter Storm
Warning.
Heading into Wednesday, the aforementioned clipper will drop
into southern Ontario with its cold front oriented southwest to
northeast as it tracks through the Great Lakes Region Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening. Ongoing southwest lake effect
snow across the Straits will continue into Wednesday morning,
with synoptic snow showers overspreading much of the region. A
general 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation will be possible in
the snowbelts, with lesser amounts elsewhere during the day
Wednesday. As the aformentioned cold front tracks through the
region, this will provide enough forcing to generate another
burst of snow across the region. This could be rather quick
hitting and produce another couple inches in a short amount of
time with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely leading to blowing
and drifting snow, along with possible whiteout conditions at
times... making considerable to even higher end impacts on area
travel Wednesday night into Thursday. For more details, please
see active Winter Storm Watch.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024
Active weather is expected to continue through the long term,
with high impact conditions likely Wednesday night into
Thursday. A strong clipper system continues to track by to our
northeast Wednesday night with a shot of arctic air advecting in
behind it. A very tight pressure gradient between this low
(~991 mb) and strong high pressure over the northern Plains
(1040 mb) will lead to strong and gusty winds likely resulting
in widespread blowing and drifting snow. Lake effect snow
enhanced by upward forcing from the clipper will target
northwest flow areas possibly creating whiteout conditions at
times overnight Wednesday into at least Thursday morning as
winds gusts to between 30 and 40 mph+. Snowfall accumulations in
these areas are expected to range from 5 to 10 inches.
Elsewhere, a general 1 to 3 of inches of snow expected but with
areas of blowing and drifting snow. Moisture/winds slowly
decrease later Thursday into Thursday night as the flow veers
more northerly lessening the area of impact. Lighter LES snow
continues Friday as winds back more westerly. The series of
Alberta Clippers continue late in the week into this weekend
with one due in Friday night and another moving by to our north
Saturday night. The tracks of these systems are expected to
bring in gradually "warmer air" decreasing over lake
instability. There will still be chances for periods of light
snow but with lowering chances of LES this weekend. There could
even be some rain showers Saturday with any precipitation that
falls on Sunday likely being in the form of rain. Extended
guidance varies on the details after that with northern Michigan
looking like it`ll end up within the battle ground between the
warmer and colder air. This increases the possibility of a
synoptic storm system next week including questions over the
form of precipitation (rain or snow?). As far as temperatures
go, colder readings expected Thursday and Friday with highs in
the mid 20s to around 30 followed by moderating temperatures of
well into the 30s to the mid 40s Sunday into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024
Periodic snow showers this afternoon. Snow showers increase
tonight especially across southwest facing taf sites as low
pressure moves by to the north. More snow showers are expected
Wednesday into Thursday. Winds will be on the increase tonight
and be very gusty at times leading blowing snow. Cigs are
expected to settle into mvfr tonight, dropping to ifr at times.
Vsbys could drop to LIFR, especially at PLN late tonight into
Wednesday morning.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Wednesday for MIZ016-017-087-088-096-097.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for MIZ018-021>029-031>034.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Thursday for MIZ020-086-095-098-099.
MARINE...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Thursday for
LHZ345.
Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for
LHZ346>349.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Thursday for
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Thursday for LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...AJS
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Lake Huron Weather
