National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KAPX 170348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1148 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

Issued at 1140 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

Quiet weather will persist overnight as drier air filters into the
area in the wake of today`s cold front. The main concern
overnight revolves around frost potential inland. Dew points are
in the mid 30s, but winds are expected to stay up some. This fact
should help preclude more than patchy frost overnight inland.


.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

...Showers lingering near Saginaw Bay again...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal...Outside of a chilly night

A general area of troughing is pushing through the region. A piece
of energy is moving into the lower Great Lakes with some decent
subsidence behind it. The other piece of energy is treking by
just to our north, with that wave moving through southern Ontario.
At the surface a weak cold front as dropped through Nrn Michigan
and as of mid-afternoon has pushed off shore into Lake Huron.
Earlier this afternoon right as soon as we mixed out the boundary
layer some weak storms popped up right along the front...tapping
into a whopping 200 to 300 Joules of SBCAPE. These managed to
produce some pea-sized hail over Harrisville. Going forward
through this evening we`ll continue to have CAA and mostly
clearing skies as we lose daytime heating. A bit better low level
moisture resides north of the bridge, with some low clouds
possibly trying to hang on there. Even with high pressure starting
to nudge in from the northwest don`t believe our winds will fully
decouple enough to go calm. This should keep tonight`s low from
tanking too far up there. Further south in the valleys sheltered
from wind we could drop into the mid- 30`s.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)

...Cooler Tuesday, Frosty Tuesday Night then Warming Back Up...

High Impact Weather Potential...Widespread frost possible Tuesday

Weak high pressure and associated cooler temperatures settle across
the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Light winds in combination
with clear to partly cloudy skies will allow good radiational
cooling conditions to set up Tuesday night. Some spots will likely
see frost formation (especially east of I-75). Will see just how
widespread this ends up being which will determine whether or not
headlines will be needed. Attention then turns to the south where a
weak area of low pressure is expected to form. This system will
increase chances for mainly light rain showers Wednesday. Higher
pressure/nearly zonal flow aloft will lead to warmer conditions
Thursday. Highs ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s Tuesday, the
low and mid 60s Wednesday then the warmer mid 60s to mid 70s
Thursday. Lows Tuesday night in the upper 20s to mid 30s then the
milder low and mid 40s Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

...Warm Friday; Welcomed Rain Possible Friday and Saturday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Strong thunderstorms possible
Friday; Frost Possible Again Saturday and Sunday Nights.

Low pressure tracks by to our northwest Friday dragging a surface
cold front across the region as well as a decent shot of showers and
possible strong thunderstorms. Low pressure then tracks by to our
south Saturday bringing a chance for rain showers. A northern stream
trough will lead a shot of chilly air Saturday night on through
much of the remainder of the long term forecast. Frost will again
become possible Saturday and Sunday nights (best shot looks like
Sunday night).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

VFR conditions expected across the northern Michigan terminal
area through the 06Z TAF valid time. Minimal clouds are expected
for much of the period. Northwest winds will prevail for much of
the period, with gusts returning as temperatures warm again


Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

Winds and waves will continue SCA criteria through this evening in
northern Lake Huron, Whitefish Bay and the Saint Mary`s River. A
cold front that brought a few showers and storms this afternoon
will continue to filter in cooler air on northwest winds.
Otherwise...much of our nearshore areas remain dry through
Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347-348.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.



NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion