National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion
219
FXUS63 KAPX 131716
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
116 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance for showers/storms this weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026
Wnw flow aloft will be temporarily displaced this weekend, as part
of the western ridge pushes east thru the region, though
deamplifying somewhat as it does so. This will turn the upper flow
more westerly for a bit, just ahead of a shortwave trof passing late
in the weekend. Then its back to wnw flow next week.
Mostly clear skies out there, though with patchy mid/high clouds
advancing from WI and western upper MI. Some fog/stratus also
popping up, especially in south where surface dew points remain
higher than elsewhere. Suppose there is a non-zero of the Lake Huron
lake breeze kicking off some showers for the ne lower MI coastal
counties. Some recent runs of the HRRR/RAP do this, but most
guidance does not. And some patchy fog returns late tonight. But
otherwise, high pressure passing north of Superior on Friday will
push drier air into the area. Dew points will lower into the 50s in
many areas on Friday, which should make convection more difficult,
even with a shortwave potentially digging across Lk Huron.
A zone of unsettled wx will remain in the southern lakes/northern OH
Valley for the couple of days. As the surface high heads downstream
Saturday, and low pressure evolves in the northern plains/southern
Canada, warmth and moisture will attempt to work north. A decent
chance for showers and storms should result for late Saturday into
Sunday. Surface cold front goes thru Sunday, and northerly flow and
cooler/drier air push in Sunday night thru Monday night. Wnw flow
aloft becomes a bit more energetic after that, with shower chances
resuming Tuesday. Temps area a little cooler, especially Sunday and
beyond, but overall pretty yummy late-summer stuff.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026
Primarily VFR expected today. Low chance for a SHRA or VCTS this
afternoon; most likely shot at SHRA is near APN on the lake breeze.
Otherwise, wonder if anything will develop at MBL or perhaps TVC on
the edge of the rain to our southwest, where there is a bit more
instability present despite mid-level clouds, but have left this out
of tafs for now given low confidence. Will need to watch for fog
again tonight, especially at MBL but possibly at PLN and other
sites. Light/vrb winds with lake breezes this afternoon and land
breezes tonight...with hints of prevailing northerly flow starting
Friday.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...FEF
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Lake Huron Weather
