National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion
538
FXUS63 KAPX 291829
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
229 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances return late tonight - Thursday with the
highest rainfall amounts expected south of M-32.
- Cooler temperatures return along with dry weather as we look
to the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Quiet weather continues through this evening before shower
chances gradually increase late tonight into Wednesday as the
next wave and associated boundary approach from the west.
Precipitation will become more widespread Wednesday into
Thursday as the system tracks through the region. Overall
rainfall rates should remain on the lighter side, as relatively
dry low and mid levels will limit precipitation efficiency, with
rain spread out over a prolonged period of time. Northern
Lower, particularly areas south of M-32, look favored for higher
rainfall totals, with around 0.50" to 0.85" expected late
tonight through Thursday night with higher amounts possible the
farther south you go, including around an inch or more across
portions of far southern northern Lower (around and south of
M-55)... Again, these are storm total rainfall amounts over the
course of 36 hours. Amounts should generally taper the farther
north one goes.
The midweek wave gradually departs Thursday night into Friday,
with a few lingering low-end shower chances possible Friday
before high pressure builds back in. Temperatures will cool
behind the system, with highs settling into the 60s and
overnight lows generally in the 40s or cooler through the
weekend. Overall, a much quieter and drier pattern is expected
Friday into early next week as high pressure influences the
sensible weather, with ample dry time expected through the
weekend. Shower chances still linger Sunday as some guidance
continues to suggest a weak disturbance could clip the area, but
confidence remains low with this being several days out.
Otherwise, seasonably cool temperatures for early October and
generally dry conditions look to continue into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Some MVFR cloud bases possible thru afternoon, but otherwise VFR.
Not impossible fog develops again this evening/tonight ahead of
rain, and if so, IFR-LIFR conditions possible with fog...but not
confident in this attm. Otherwise, slow downtrend expected from
VFR/MVFR to IFR or lower by 10-14z; rain from VFR cigs could move
in as early as 6-8z. Looks like a 30-ish knot jet around 2kft AGL
will develop tonight across the area, with less certainty of this at
APN; some of this could mix down in the morning. Not impossible
there could be some embedded TS after 12z, but not confident in this
idea attm. Lake breezes this afternoon and non-zero chance for land
(offshore) breeze this evening at coastal sites, but expect winds to
become more S/SW and increase toward 10-15kts by morning.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening for MIZ025-031-095-096-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
LHZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to midnight EDT
Wednesday night for LHZ348-349.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...FEF
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Lake Huron Weather
