National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KAPX 292027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
327 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

...Partial Clearing...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

Milder air continues to stream into the region from the southwest.
As a result over lake instability is decreasing with time. The
back edge of a lake generated cloud deck is just on the Lake
Michigan shoreline at the moment. Expect clearing to spread across
the region from west to east this evening and hold through the
overnight hours. The one exception is across eastern upper where
more clouds along with a few snow showers will continue. Southwest
winds are expected to keep temperatures from dropping off too
much with lows in the milder mid 20s to around 30 expected.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

...Mild with Small Precipitation Chances...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

A surface cold front will move across the region Thursday from
northwest (late morning) to southeast (afternoon). Mild air in
combination with downsloping southwest winds are expected to boost
temperatures from around 40 to the mid 40s. Cooler air behind the
front will likely produce more lake clouds and even a few snow
showers (mainly off of Lake Superior) Thursday night into Friday.
Low pressure is then expected to move by to our south Friday night
into Saturday. Not expecting much weather to reach this far north
but will continue to carry low to slight chance pops across far
southern zones (mainly near Saginaw Bay). Not as warm Friday into
Saturday with highs mainly in the 30s and lows ranging from the
upper teens to mid 20s.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal

Broad longwave troughing over the entire CONUS with embedded
disturbances will continue a cool and wet weather pattern for the
entirety of the long term. Best chance of active weather comes at
the beginning of the forecast period as low pressure returns
snowfall (and maybe some rain) to the Great Lakes region.

A shortwave trough currently over the West Coast will progress across
the southern Rockies this week and make its way to the Great Lakes
region by the start of the weekend. This bit of energy will deliver
mainly snowfall to the CWA at the beginning of next week, but
milder air might generate some mixed precip for locations closer
to the shorelines. But regardless, no heavy rain/snowfall is
expected at this time. After the system makes its way towards the
east coast by Monday, snowfall will be generated at times next
week due to lingering low level moisture (850 to 700mb RH above
70%). No impactful weather is expected at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

MVFR cigs are expected to slowly lift to low end VFR over the next
few hours. VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder
of the taf period. Southwest winds will be gusty at times. No
appreciable precipitation is anticipated, though a few flurries or
spits of drizzle are possible. LLWS winds fall just short of
criteria late tonight/early Thursday.


Issued at 308 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Southwest winds will continue to be gusty at times through
Thursday morning. A cold front will then shift winds into the west
northwest Thursday afternoon. Winds are then expected to decrease
below sca level by early Thursday evening.


LH...Small Craft Advisory until 6 pm Thursday for LHZ345>349.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 pm Thursday for LMZ323-341-
342-344>346. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 6 pm Thursday for




NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion