National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion
839
FXUS63 KAPX 121752
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
152 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild today with mostly dry weather.
- Cooler with periods of showers and storms Friday into Saturday.
- Warming up Sunday into the middle of next week with additional
chances for showers and storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:
High pressure over Ontario building into northern Michigan will
bring cooler and more stable conditions. Temperatures early
this morning are generally in the 40s across eastern Upper and
upper 40s to low 50s across northern Lower. A weak elevated
boundary just south of M-72 triggered some isolated light
showers overnight, breifly aided by upper-level jet dynamics,
but that activity has mostly stayed along and south of M-55.
Expect mostly dry weather today with diminishing cloud cover,
aside from possible Canadian wildfire smoke aloft that could
linger in the sky creating a milky/ hazy appearance at times.
Eastern Upper looks to see mainly sunshine, while some mid to
high level clouds could linger near the aformentioned boundary
across northern Lower. Generally light northwest winds will keep
temperatures mild, with highs in the mid 60s along the
lakeshores and low to mid 70s for inland areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:
A stalled front will settle across southern Lower Michigan
Friday into Saturday. The placement of this front will directly
influence the weather at the start of the period. Several
shortwaves tracking through the region will interact with this
boundary, creating a favorable environment for a narrow band of
scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms. However, exact
timing and location remain uncertain given model/ guidance
inconsistencies-- models are trending drier with the bulk of
precipitation looking to mainly impact the tip of the Mitt and
eastern Upper, aligning with WPC`s thoughts of excessive
rainfall potential and SPC placing northern Michigan in general
thunder Friday.
Cloudy skies look to limit temperatures in the 50s and 60s
Friday and Saturday... If the front holds just south of the
area, showers could linger into Saturday, though with
diminishing coverage. If the boundary shifts north or weakens by
Sunday, drier and milder conditions are expected as ridging
begins to build.
Looking into early next week, a more unsettled and zonal flow
will allow temperatures to slowly rebound toward seasonal
averages. Minor disturbances moving through the flow look to
keep shower chances into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025
VFR conditions expected to continue through the majority of the
period. Cloud cover and rain chances move in later tonight,
dropping ceilings across Northern Michigan. Some potential for
MVFR conditions Friday morning.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...SJC
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion
Lake Huron Weather
