NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Sat, Jan 22, 2022 - Sun, Jan 23, 2022 D7Tue, Jan 25, 2022 - Wed, Jan 26, 2022
D5Sun, Jan 23, 2022 - Mon, Jan 24, 2022 D8Wed, Jan 26, 2022 - Thu, Jan 27, 2022
D6Mon, Jan 24, 2022 - Tue, Jan 25, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS48 KWNS 190941
SWOD48
SPC AC 190940

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The latest deterministic GFS and ECMWF are now in better agreement
that a surface cold front should be nearly off the south FL Coast
around the start of the period on Day 4/Saturday. An upper trough
centered over the Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning should move over the
western Atlantic, which should generally limit thunderstorm chances
over land. Still, there may still be some potential for elevated
convection north of the cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula
during the day, but the overall severe potential appears low at this
time. With another frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico, the
lack of meaningful low-level moisture is expected to greatly limit
organized severe thunderstorm chances across the CONUS on both Day
5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday.

By next Tuesday (Day 7), there are some indications in medium-range
guidance that a southern-stream shortwave trough may advance quickly
from the vicinity of coastal TX across the northern Gulf of Mexico
and adjacent Deep South. It appears there may be sufficient
low-level moisture return northward across parts of the FL
Peninsula, in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level winds and
increasing instability, to support an isolated severe threat. Still,
there is too much uncertainty in the evolution of the upper trough
to include a 15% severe area at this extended time frame. Depending
on the speed of this upper trough and related cold front, a severe
threat may linger across parts of the southern FL Peninsula into Day
8/Wednesday, but predictability is low.

..Gleason.. 01/19/2022