NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook 0830Z Probablistic 0830Z
Current Day 3 Outlook 0730z
Categorical Day3 0830Z Outlook
  

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS03 KWNS 190909
SWODY3
SPC AC 190908

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula.

...Florida Peninsula...
A positively tilted, large-scale upper trough should continue
advancing slowly eastward from the MS/OH Valleys to the East Coast
through Friday night. Substantial low-level moisture, characterized
by at least mid 60s surface dewpoints, will remain confined to the
south of a warm front which is forecast to be positioned over parts
of south FL Friday morning.

Some differences remain in model guidance regarding how far north
this rich low-level moisture will advance in tandem with the warm
front across the southern/central FL Peninsula through the period.
Regardless of this uncertainty, mid-level southwesterly flow is
forecast to gradually strengthen by late Friday afternoon with the
approach of the upper trough. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough
to support supercells, especially across central FL, with gradually
decreasing shear across south FL suggesting perhaps more of a
multicellular mode with southward extent.

With some diurnal heating occurring to the south of the front, at
least weak instability should develop by peak afternoon heating. The
forecast combination of sufficient instability and seasonably strong
deep-layer shear indicates potential for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms with any convection that can develop along/south of
the front. Large-scale ascent will be somewhat lacking with the best
forcing associated with the upper trough likely remaining displaced
to the north of the front. Still, weak low-level convergence along
the front itself and along sea breeze boundaries may support
isolated convection through Friday evening.

Even though mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain relatively
modest, temperatures at 500 mb of -10 to -12 C across this region
may support marginally severe hail in addition to an isolated threat
for damaging winds. Fairly weak low-level flow casts greater
uncertainty on the tornado threat. But, low potential for a rotating
updraft or two may exist along the front itself, where low-level
winds may be locally backed to a more southeasterly component.

..Gleason.. 01/19/2022

$$