NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Convective Outlooks
Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.
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Categorical Day3 0830Z Outlook
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Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
000
ACUS03 KWNS 190731
SWODY3
SPC AC 190730
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of
the Gulf Coast region, but no severe threat is expected.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central Gulf
Coast states on Sunday, as a cold front moves from the coastal areas
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
near the front early in the day. Other post-frontal storms may
develop in parts of the Gulf Coast states during the afternoon.
Instability across the Gulf Coast is expected to be very weak
limiting any potential for severe storms.
..Broyles.. 04/19/2024
$$
