NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1630Z Outlook
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS01 KWNS 191610
SPC AC 191609

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z


Severe storms are not expected over the U.S. today.

Large-scale trough amplification will occur through tonight over the
Great Lakes and Midwest. Prevalent cool/stable conditions will
relegate isolated thunderstorm potential to the southern tier of the
CONUS. Near a remnant baroclinic zone, the most probable area for a
few thunderstorms will be in the warm advection zone from the middle
TX coast northward, with only isolated thunderstorms expected
farther east along the Gulf Coast into northern FL. Other elevated
convection will be possible from northern Mexico into the TX Big
Bend vicinity.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/19/2018