NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks

Convective Outlooks
The convective outlooks serve as guidance to the local NWS forecast offices and are used by emergency managers, private sector meteorologists, media, and other weather customers concerned with public safety. Three separate risk areas (slight, moderate, and high) are used to describe the expected coverage and intensity for the categorical severe weather threat on days 1-3 along with severe weather probabilities for the potential threat.

Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1630Z Outlook
  
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion


000
ACUS01 KWNS 161623
SWODY1
SPC AC 161622

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
The greatest concentration of severe-storm potential appears to be
this afternoon and evening over portions of Oklahoma, eastern Kansas
and western Missouri.

...Central Plains...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined MCV moving eastward
into western OK.  Strong heating is occurring ahead of this feature
across much of OK and eastern KS, where dewpoints in the 70s and
steep mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
2000-3000 J/kg and little CIN.  Model guidance is consistent in the
development of scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon throughout
this area.  A potent shortwave trough over NE is also digging
southeastward toward the region, resulting in strengthening
mid/upper level wind fields.  This will promote increased convective
organization and the potential for a few supercells capable of large
hail and damaging winds.  One negative factor for a more robust
severe event is that low level wind fields are weak (generally less
than 15 knots in the lowest 2km).  This region should remain active
through the evening, with storms spreading eastward into western MO.


...OR...
A fast-moving shortwave trough off the coast of northern CA will
track inland later today, with large-scale lifting beginning to
affect OR before dark.  12z CAM solutions suggest the development of
a few convective cells over central OR later this afternoon,
tracking east-northeastward across the MRGL risk area.  Forecast
soundings show inverted-v profiles with sufficient CAPE to pose a
risk of damaging winds in the most intense downdrafts.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 08/16/2018

$$