National Weather Service - Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KAPX 240642

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
242 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

High impact weather: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Very quiet out there early this morning, as high pressure is
drifting into nrn Michigan. The air mass was very dry with clear
skies, other than some thin cirrus trying to drop in from the NW.
There was still a little bit of a NW wind that was keeping the BL
just a little bit mixed, keeping temperatures from crashing. Readings
were generally in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Upstream, was a
shortwave trough an associated low pressure in far nrn Manitoba. A
cold front from this system was working into the US/Canadian border
from MT to ND, with some light scattered showers in that area.

Winds will be weakening into daybreak, which might allow for some
very chilly temperatures down into the lower and middle 20s, for
mainly those low lying areas.

The quiet conditions will continue today through most of tonight.
The air mass remains very dry today, and most of nrn Michigan will
just see increasing higher level cloud, especially tonight. The
front and DPVA from the shortwave presses into far nrn Lake Michigan
and much of eastern upper late tonight toward daybreak. The air mass
moistens up to 0.75" to near an inch and the forcing will result in
some likely showers in those areas.

Highs today in the upper 50s in eastern upper to the lower half of
the 60s in nrn lower. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower
half of the 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:  By early Thursday morning, fairly zonal
flow is expected overhead with several shortwaves positioned well to
our west. The first wave and attendant surface cold front is
expected to trek from WI/MN/IA eastward across northern Michigan
Thursday afternoon followed by a more robust wave approaching the
region from the northwest early Friday morning. Limited precip
chances will accompany each system with a return to below normal
temperatures behind the aforementioned frontal passage Thursday
afternoon through Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: PoPs Thursday and Friday,
along with a return to below normal temperatures.

Initial warm southwesterly flow is anticipated Thursday morning,
prior to the passage of a cold front midday into the afternoon
hours. This should allow midday temperatures to climb into the low-
mid 60s across much of northern lower (50s for eastern upper and the
Tip of the Mitt) before temperatures begin to fall by mid-late
afternoon. With respect to precip chances, latest trends continue to
suggest a broken line of pre-frontal rain showers during the morning
across the far north before gradually spreading southeastward
through the remainder of the day. Not a whole lot expected in terms
of QPF (tenth of an inch or less) and it`s conceivable that some
locations miss out on rain entirely, but none the less, will
continue to spread PoPs southeastward across the forecast area for
much of the day Thursday.

Any lingering precip chances early Thursday evening across
southeastern areas are expected to diminish rather quickly as the
frontal boundary continues to shift off to the east. Cooler
temperatures will continue to filter in overnight with overnight
lows likely falling into the 30s for many (perhaps even colder if
skies are able to clear prior to Friday`s sunrise).

Another, more robust wave is expected to trek to our north during
the day Friday, but with limited deep layer moisture and forcing
across the area locally, only sprinkles and/or a few light rain
showers are expected - primarily across the northern half of the
forecast area. High temperatures struggle to reach 50 across eastern
upper and expected to range through the 50s across northern lower -
some 5 or so degrees below late April normals.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal...for now.

Primary focus through the extended forecast period revolves around
the late Saturday through Sunday time frame as northern stream
energy is expected to ramp up across the central plains before
trekking eastward across a portion of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.
The placement of this strengthening area of low pressure will likely
largely depend on the strength and placement of high pressure across
Ontario, but the potential is certainly there for a period of soggy
this upcoming weekend...perhaps even snowy for part of northern
Michigan? Worth monitoring future outlooks through the remainder of
the week.

Active weather looks to continue beyond Sunday with several
additional perturbations crossing the region early next week and
beyond, each bringing the potential for wet weather to northern


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

High pressure will drift across the region today, making way for the
arrival of a cold front and chance of showers for Thursday. The air
mass will be very dry today, with some moistening into the mid
levels tonight. VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be on the
light side, shifting around out of the SW today.


Issued at 236 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

High pressure will drift across the region today, making way for the
arrival of a cold front and chance of showers for Thursday. The high
pressure and lighter winds will bring an end to advisory level NW
wind gusts still occurring over portions of nrn Lake Huron. Winds
ramp up again out of the SW tonight into Thursday in advance of the
cold front. There is a small chance that some advisory level gusts
can occur in the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, as well as
Whitefish Bay. Do not have enough confidence to go with an advisory
attm, due to good overlake stability. A secondary cold front arrives
late Thursday night, which may ultimately result in a better chance
for advisories.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EDT this morning for LHZ347-348.



NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion